Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 33.610470 36.235085 39.087184 42.438991 46.299589 50.643478 55.954068
2025-06-01 29.368296 32.780630 36.719860 41.677741 47.863209 55.489145 65.882951
2025-06-08 26.584559 30.287598 34.720933 40.546387 48.208003 58.277702 73.171409
2025-06-15 25.521912 29.636707 34.735507 41.723284 51.419201 65.061107 87.202946
2025-06-22 24.152159 28.430444 33.865437 41.550618 52.662823 69.178296 98.205849
2025-06-29 22.810854 27.131251 32.725791 40.833257 52.952195 71.808662 107.364601
2025-07-06 21.499202 25.770184 31.381099 39.666716 52.378258 72.901079 113.966446
2025-07-13 21.157418 25.658873 31.703774 40.894126 55.587396 80.793083 136.719185
2025-07-20 20.712245 25.368495 31.739406 41.674113 58.154605 88.071652 161.710369
2025-07-27 20.260100 25.033816 31.676005 42.276255 60.479076 95.394163 191.234797
2025-08-03 19.631249 24.413675 31.150955 42.091054 61.381166 100.033507 216.458585
2025-08-10 18.921625 23.643186 30.356023 41.398867 61.266177 102.458202 236.486897
2025-08-17 18.195221 22.838152 29.497129 40.588945 60.939954 104.598651 258.720635
2025-08-24 17.539004 22.109055 28.718461 39.860984 60.701059 106.961504 285.051163
2025-08-31 16.853686 21.309107 27.790685 38.811291 59.708830 107.270508 303.059322
2025-09-07 16.727102 21.318027 28.101948 39.904502 63.144780 119.920060 408.105818
2025-09-14 16.322972 20.897587 27.718282 39.744202 63.960254 125.765234 489.220182
2025-09-21 15.834133 20.332066 27.078055 39.077847 63.606986 128.126335 552.192527
2025-09-28 15.283687 19.656343 26.235100 37.993039 62.223860 127.023262 581.619111
2025-10-05 15.234428 19.732839 26.597531 39.134410 65.960592 143.620934 926.977455
2025-10-12 15.099530 19.672046 26.731682 39.858860 68.865200 159.052712 1565.681502
2025-10-19 14.937884 19.562777 26.778523 40.417673 71.469284 174.993699 3177.303512
2025-10-26 14.648754 19.245263 26.463122 40.245840 72.222227 183.839000 6320.900960